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In the eurozone as a whole, industrial production fell 1.9 percent in May, the sharpest one-month decline for the region since the exchange rate crisis in 1992. European car sales fell 7.8 percent in May compared with a year earlier.[84] Retail sales fell by 0.6 percent in June from the May level and by 3.1 percent from June in the previous year. Germany was the only country out of the four biggest economies in the eurozone to register an increase of activity in July though the increase was sharply down. Economic analysts from RBS and capital Economics say the decline raises the risk of the eurozone entering a recession in 2008. In the second quarter, the eurozone's economy was reported to have declined by 0.2 percent. The economy declined again in the third quater putting the eurozone in a technical recession. [16]
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4.1£©Ireland£¨°®¶ûÀ¼£©
Ireland in the first quarter of 2008 reported a contraction in GDP of 1.5 percent, its first economic contraction since it began reporting by quarter and first recorded contraction since 1983. However, Ireland's Central Statistics Office reported growth in GNP of about 0.8 percent, Ireland's government considers GNP a better measure of the economy. Analysts have predicted Ireland's economy will contract further in the rest of the year. A report from NCB Stockbrokers predicts gross national product will fall by 1 percent in 2008 and by 0.4 percent in 2009 due to a decline in multinationals hit by the global economic slowdown. An economist from NCB said non-residential investment would fall by 5 percent in 2008 and by 12 percent in 2009. Ireland's GDP saw a contraction in the second quarter by 0.5 percent making Ireland the first member of the eurozone to enter a recession. [17]
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4.2£©Spain£¨Î÷°àÑÀ£©
Spain's Martinsa-Fadesa, a construction company, has declared bankruptcy as it failed to refinance a debt of €5.1 billion. The two banks with most exposure to Martinsa-Fadesa are reportedly Caja Madrid, at €900m, and Banco Popular, at €400m. Spain's finance minister Pedro Solbes has said it would not bail out the company. In the second quarter in Spain house prices reportedly fell 20 percent. In Castilla-La Mancha some 69 percent of all houses built over the past three years are still unsold. Deutsche Bank said it expects a 35 percent fall in real house prices by 2011. Spain's premier, Jose Luis Zapatero, blamed the European Central Bank for making matters worse by raising interest rates. More than 98 percent of home loans in Spain are priced off floating rates linked to Euribor, which has risen 145 basis points since August. Housing accounts for over 10 percent of Spain's economy. The Bank of Spain is concerned about the health of smaller regional lenders with heavy exposure to the mortgage market. [16]
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4.3£©Germany, Italy, Greece, Portugal£¨µÂ¹ú¡¢Òâ´óÀû¡¢Ï£À°¡¢ÆÏÌÑÑÀ£©
In Germany officials are warning the economy could contract by as much as 1.5 percent in the second quarter because of declining export orders. The economy of Germany contracted in both the second and third quaters putting Germany now in a technical recession. Industrial output in both Italy and Greece has slumped 6.6 percent over the past year. However, Greece's economy will continue to grow for both 2008 and 2009; Eurostat expects the Greek economy to grow 3.1% and 2.5% respectively.Portugal is off 6.2 percent. Germany's industrial output was down 2.4 percent in May, the fastest rate for a decade. Orders have now fallen for six months in a row, the worst run since the early 1990s. The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce warned of up to 200,000 job losses in coming months. German retails sales fell 1.4 percent in June more than any expectations. The German economy declined by 0.5 percent in the second quarter. In Italy, Fiat announced plant closures and temporary layoffs at factories in Turin, Melfi, Imola and Sicily. Car sales in Italy have fallen by almost 20 percent over each of the past two months. Metalmeccanici, Italy's car workers' union said, "The situation is evidently more serious than had been understood." On July 10, 2008 economic think tank ISAE lowered its growth forecast for Italy to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent and cut the 2009 outlook to 0.7 percent from 1.2 percent. Analysts have predicted Italy had entered a recession in the second quarter or would enter one by the end of the year with business confidence at its lowest levels since the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Italy's economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008. [18]
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4.4£©France, Finland, Benelux£¨·¨¹ú¡¢·ÒÀ¼¡¢ºÉÀ¼£©
Other eurozone members saw a decline in their economy in the second quarter. The French economy declined by 0.3 percent, Finland's economy declined by 0.2%, and the Netherlands showed zero growth in the second quarter. According to INSEE, France's statistical agency, the French GDP was projected to decline by 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2008 with another 0.1 percent decline in the fourth quarter and Eric Woerth, the French budget minister, said France was in a technical recession. However the final estimations gave by the INSEE showed the French GDP actually increased by 0,14% thus avoiding a technical recession. [19]
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1£©China£¨Öйú£©
On November 9, 2008 China announced a package of capital spending plus income and consumption support measures. Four trillion yuan ($586 billion) will be spent on upgrading infrastructure, particularly roads, railways, airports and the power grid; on raising rural incomes via land reform; and on social welfare projects such as affordable housing and environmental protection. [20]
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2£©Japan£¨ÈÕ±¾£©
In Japan exports in June declined for the first time in about five years falling by 1.7 percent. Exports to the United States and European Union fell 15.4 percent and 11.2 percent respectively. The decline in exports and increase in imports cut Japan's trade surplus $1.28 billion a decline of 90 percent from the previous year. An economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland said the decline means the Japanese economy most likely declined in the second quarter. Taro Aso, secretary-general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said he believes Japan had entered a recession. Japan's economy declined by 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2008. This was later revised to a decline of 0.7 percent. Japanese exports grew 0.3 percent in August of 2008 compared to a year before down from 8 percent the previous month. Exports to the U.S. fell 21.8 percent, the biggest decline on record, and exports to Europe fell 3.5 percent. Two Japanese banks appeared on the list of major Lehman creditors. On November 17th, the Japanese Economy Minister announced that the nation was officially in a recession. [21]
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3£©India£¨Ó¡¶È£©
India's economy grew at an annual rate of 9% or more in the past three years, second only to China among the major economies, and the projections for FY2008 indicate that India's economic growth has been effected by the economic crisis. The Indian government's Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, however, said that he expected India's economy to bounce back to 9% during FY2009. This prediction has been met with skepticism by observers. The Asian Development Bank predicted India to recover from weakening momentum in 4-6 quarters. At the G20 Summit, India called for coordinated global fiscal stimulus to mitigate the severity of the global credit crunch. India said that it would inject US$4.5 billion into the financial system to help exporters. Some analysts pointed that India's going trade with other Asian countries, especially China, will help reduce the negative impact of the crisis. Analysts also said that India's high domestic demand and large infrastructure projects will act as a buffer reducing the impact of the global downturn on its economy. Economists argued that India's financial system is relatively insulated and the its banks do not have significant exposure to subprime mortgage. [22]
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Singapore's economy saw its biggest drop in five years in the second quarter, falling by 6.6 percent; however, the Managing Director of Singapore's central bank said a technical recession was not likely. Singapore cut its 2008 GDP forecast to between 4 and 5 from 4 to 6 percent before, and then again down to 3 percent. Singapore's economy contracted in the third quarter, placing the country in recession. [24]
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5£©South Korea£¨º«¹ú£©
The foreign exchange reserves of South Korea's central bank contained many depreciating "Agency bonds" from the GSEs, threatening a currency crisis and leading to depreciation of the South Korean won against the US dollar and other major currencies,. Samsung Electronics has been reported to be posting a decrease in sales for the first time since the Asian financial crisis since home appliances saw a decrease in the domestic market of up to 20 percent since mid-June compared to the previous year. Domestic auto sales also saw a decrease in the second quarter. Auto exports also posted a loss and exports of home appliances were also reported to be in decline. [25]
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1£©New Zealand£¨ÐÂÎ÷À¼£©
New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's quarterly survey showing New Zealand's economy contracted 0.3 percent in the first quarter and Treasury figures suggested the economy also contracted in the June quarter putting New Zealand in a technical recession. The Treasury says the economy could recover in the second half of the year under the impact of high dairy prices boosting farmer incomes and cuts to personal tax rates, which come into effect on Oct. 1. About 23 financial companies in New Zealand have filed for bankruptcy in a year. Housing starts in New Zealand fell 20 percent in June, the lowest levels since 1986. Excluding apartments, approvals dropped 13 percent from May. Approvals in the year ended June fell 12 percent from a year earlier. Second-quarter approvals dropped 19 percent. The figures suggest a decrease in construction and economic growth. House sales fell 42 percent in June from a year earlier. [26]
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