“It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.”
– Charles Dickens
Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”
The following are a few of my predictions and reasons behind them…
Prediction #1: The real estate market will crash again.
In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:
1. In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed.
2. The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low -- around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm. In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.
3. The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?
4. In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?
5. Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?
6. The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are empyting as shopkeepers close -- permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.
My prediction: Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.
Other things I am watching for in 2010:
1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.
2. When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.
3. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.
4. The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less.
5. The deficit will increase. The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.
6. Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof.
7. Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.
The Best of Times
I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.
The following are the bright spots for people who are prepared.
Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010.
In 2009, the Dow rose approximately 18%. Gold rose approximately 25%. Silver rose approximately 50%.
By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.
Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.
Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.
In Conclusion
A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy -- till the bubble burst in 1990. Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.
We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food -- not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.
Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.
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“这是最好的年代，也是最坏的年代。”
——查尔斯·狄更斯
衰退结束了吗？欢乐的日子真的回来了吗？按照狄更斯的说法，我的回答是，“对于做好准备的人来说，2010将是最好的年代；而对其他人，2010将是最坏的年代。”
以下是我的一些预测以及它们背后的原因。
预言一，房地产市场将再次崩溃。
简单地说，所谓房贷重组就是房贷到了偿还的时候再重新贷款。在通常情况下，重新贷款是一个简单的过程……但这些不是通常情况，以下是一些有趣的情况：
1、2008年9月，那个月的房贷重组规模达到了350亿。那个时点正好就是金融危机发生的准确时间。当人们无法重新贷款并开始违约时，股市和银行业崩溃了。
2、风暴眼：2009年夏天，房贷重组量很低，大约每月150亿。这时乐观主义者开始看到经济复苏的绿芽。绿芽就是风暴眼。据我看来，2010年金融风暴的下半场将开始上演。到2011年后半段，房贷重组额将接近每月400亿。这场风暴在2012年前不会结束。
3、风暴的上半部分基本是次贷违约。而下半部分将袭击家庭收入更稳定的私房业主。问题是，他们能平安渡过风暴吗？下一步会不会是富有阶层的房子遭到拍卖？
4、美国有超过4千万人拥有2幢以上的房屋。他们能负担或者重新贷款2份以上的房贷吗？
5、由于房价下跌，许多业主将发现他们的欠款超过了房屋的市值。银行会对他们心慈手软吗？
6、把住宅当作ATM提款机的时代已经结束。这是挤压零售商和零售房产的年代。购物中心陷入了麻烦，沿公路商业区已经空荡荡而小型零售店更是关门大吉——永远地。这将导致办公室、仓库和其他商业地产的崩溃。
我的预言：很明显，如果你是是个兜里有钱的买家，这是最好的年代；而如果你是个卖家，那将是最糟糕的年代。
我对2010年其他方面的关注有：
1、中国将崩溃吗？美国的崩溃严重打击了中国的勇气和决心。中国人正在裁减掉数百万的工人。只有政府的支出在承托经济。中国的欣欣向荣最终会破灭……但是会发生在2010年吗？只有时间才能给出答案。
2、当美国停止从中国进口，中国也停止了从世界其他地方进口。这将影响到亚洲国家，同时还有澳大利亚、巴西和其他原材料供应国。
3、联储主席本?伯南克正用新债代替那些有毒债务。为了保护他那些大到不能倒的银行朋友们，他正把美国变成一具行尸走肉。衰退结束了，但美国却正进入一个新衰退时代，一段富人变得极富而所有其他人都变得更穷的时期。税收将扼杀每一个工薪人员。
4、美元将更加弱势。如果美元走强，我们将失去更多就业岗位，因为我们的商品变得更贵而我们的出口将变得更少。
5、赤字将上升。对那些富人的紧急援助将扼杀掉经济。
6、以色列将袭击伊朗。以色列无法忍受伊朗发展核能，即使伊朗宣布只是用于和平目的。如果发动了一次袭击，石油价格将冲破天。
7、死猫反弹。当前股票市场的止跌回升很可能演变为死猫反弹。如果道琼斯指数跌破6500，那么5000将是下一个支撑位。
最好的年代
我知道我听起来像个痛苦的悲观主义者。我明白我的预言对大多数人来说是个坏消息。不过，其他人而言，坏消息也是好消息。
以下是为那些做好准备的人们列出的亮点。
预言二，黄金、白银和石油将仍然是2010年的安全投资项目。
在2009年，道琼斯上涨了大约18%。黄金上涨了大约25%。白银上涨了大约50%。
在2010年底，我预测黄金将达到1775美元一盎司，白银24美元一盎司，石油85美元一桶。如果以色列袭击伊朗，这些预测都不作数了。
预言三，下一个崩溃的市场将是商业地产。
现金流为正数的房地产将更便宜。2010到2012年，对那些持有现金和能够贷到款的人来说，将是一场房地产自助餐。
结论
几年前，日本是金融世界之王。日本曾是世界上第二大经济体——直到1990年泡沫破裂。日本的财政赤字在1993年开始出现。随后，财政赤字平均每年以GDP的5.4%增长。结果，日本政府赤字现在已经达到GDP的200%！美国正步其后尘，而中国将紧随美国之后。
我们将不会看到大范围的通货膨胀，因为联储没能力印制足够的钞票以填补信贷泡沫破裂带来的损失。同样，因为缺乏订单，工厂的生产能力也严重过剩，这意味着商品消费价格将保持低水平而失业率将维持高位。取而代之的，我们将看到黄金、白银、石油、某些股票、部分房地产，还有食物，将出现通货膨胀——不是因为价值提升而是因为美元下跌。
欢迎来到新的衰退期！希望对你来说这是最好的年代！
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